Did Live 8 and G8 help cut Africa's debt burden?

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U2's Bono with Sir Paul McCartney during the opening of the Live 8 concert in Hyde Park, London, 2 July 2005Image source, Getty Images
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U2's Bono and Sir Paul McCartney at London's Live 8 concert in July 2005, one of a series of global events to raise awareness about poverty in Africa

ByAndrew Walker
BBC World Service Economics correspondent

Hyde Park in central London. Sir Paul McCartney and U2 were part of a star-studded line up that took to the stage back in 2005 with a simple message to world leaders: "Make Poverty History."

Thousands of people wore white wristbands to show their support for the campaign.

The immediate aim of the Live 8 concerts in London and elsewhere was to send a message to a summit that was about to take place in the UK.

It was the G8 Summit at Gleneagles in Scotland and the host, the British Prime Minister Tony Blair, had debt relief and aid on the agenda

The group agreed to call for full cancellation of the debts owed by these countries to the International Monetary Fund, the World Bank and the African Development Bank, a move approved by the full membership of the two organisations later that year.

It built on a scheme first launched back in 1996, external, "with the aim of ensuring that no poor country faces a debt burden it cannot manage".

The point of the exercise was to free resources for countries to spend on reducing poverty.

In addition, there was a commitment at Gleneagles to increase development aid (compared with the 2004 level) by $50bn a year, with half of that amount to go to Africa. The target date for the increase was 2010.

Did they deliver?

Partly. A total of 36 countries have gone through the debt relief process and the sums of money involved are substantial.

As of last December, the IMF estimated the total cost to creditors giving the relief as $116bn. More than half the total was accounted for by international agencies, especially the World Bank.

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Ghana: Some success, but at a cost

Kingsley Adukpo (R) in his shop in Accra on 11 February, 2014. Adukpo had to repeatedly raise his prices due to the weakening Cedi (Ghanaian currency)Image source, Getty Images
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Trader Kingsley Adukpo (R) in his shop in Ghana's capital, Accra

Ghana has made major progress, some thanks to debt relief. Spending on poverty reduction which includes health and education) increased tenfold in dollar terms between 2002 and 2012, although as a share of national income the rise was more modest. Ghana is receiving debt relief of more than $10bn.

Average economic growth in the 25 years to 2005 was 4.3% and since then has been 7%, some of that due to oil production. But Ghana is back in debt trouble. Government borrowing rose as high 12% of national income in 2012 and a declining currency raised the cost of repaying foreign debt.

In April, Ghana agreed a new $918m loan from the IMF. The success that Ghana has had in raising money in international financial markets comes at a cost. The World Bank said in April: "The key risk for Ghana's outlook is global financial conditions that might abruptly curtail the private capital flows".

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There have also been contributions to the debt relief from aid donor countries and some from commercial creditors.

On aid there was an increase, but according to Oxfam, external it fell short of the full commitment: "the G8's collective $50bn promise was missed by around $20bn".

The global financial crisis got in the way. It put new pressure on aid donor government budgets and aid did suffer, according to Eric LeCompte of the debt and development campaign network Jubilee USA.

Did the process work?

It's certainly true that on many indicators, the developing world and Africa in particular are in much better shape than they were. The most recent progress report on the Millennium Development Goals, external showed progress in most areas, though Africa is expected to fall short.

The figures - for 2010 - showed that for the world as a whole the target for halving the proportion in extreme poverty had been achieved ahead of schedule. That's not the case for Sub-Saharan Africa, although the rate was down from 56% in 1990 to 48%.

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Rwanda: Impressive growth

Cattle farmers watch over their cows outside Rwanda's Akagera national parkImage source, Getty Images
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Cattle farmers watch over their cows outside Rwanda's Akagera national park

Rwanda, smaller and poorer than Ghana, has come on since the genocide and civil war of 1994. Economic growth has been a very impressive 9% on average.

The World Bank says Rwanda is likely to meet most of the Millennium Development Goals (MDGs). It has received debt relief of $1.8bn and spending on reducing poverty has increased by a factor of more than ten since the turn of the century.

But the country remains highly dependent on aid to finance the government budget. The economy has slowed as a result of what the World Bank calls the aid shortfall. Some observers do have concerns about Rwanda's debt burden now, but it is not as acute as Ghana's.

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There has also been an improvement in economic growth. In the 25 years before the 2005 Gleneagles summit, the average annual rate was 4.1% for the developing world as a whole and 3.2% for sub-Saharan Africa.

In the subsequent 10 years the corresponding figures were 5.8% and 5.5%, and those are annual figures - relatively small increases each year make a big difference if they are sustained.

Can the Gleneagles commitments take the credit for these improvements?

Tracking the changes

These charts shows how spending on programmes that alleviate poverty, such as health and basic education has increased - as a share of national income - in countries receiving debt relief, at the same time as the burden of spending on debt payments has eased.

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According to Eric LeCompte, Gleneagles does account for part of the improvements that have occurred in Africa and the developing world.

"It's because of [debt relief] that more than 50 million kids went to school in Africa who never would have seen the inside of a classroom if it wasn't for those debt relief initiatives."

Matthew Martin, director of Development Finance International, a group which gives advice to developing country governments says Gleneagles "in some degree, paved the way for all the 'Africa rising' narrative and all the successes we have seen over the last five to 10 years".

Renewed debt risk

It is certainly not the whole story. Many of the improvements in developing countries, Africa included, were already under way before Gleneagles.

China's rise was an important factor. It has increasingly been a source of investment money in the developing countries and it's a major buyer of the commodities they sell. That helped push up the prices of those goods. And many commentators say there has been a very important contribution from the efforts of the countries themselves - citizens, private sectors and governments.

So Gleneagles didn't do it on its own, and nor is it seen as a complete or permanent solution to the problems of Africa and the developing world.

Eric LeCompte says 26 of the countries that went through the debt relief process are now at high or moderate risk of "debt distress" - not being able to meet their financial obligations.

"A lot of those countries are now in need of some kind of solution again," he says.

Ghana is a case in point, external.

British prime minister Tony Blair speaking at the end of the G8 summit 08 July 2005, in Gleneagles, Scotland. Behind from (L-R) secretary general Kofi Annan, US president George Bush, and French president Jacques ChiracImage source, Getty Images
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Ten years on from the Gleneagles G8 summit, much has been achieved, but many say more needs to be done about debt

For countries with high levels of spending on debt and also defence, research by Oxfam and Development Finance International found:

"Spending on these areas is clearly crowding out spending on Millennium Development Goal sectors in a considerable number of countries."

Among the most striking examples the report identified were countries that didn't get debt relief, sometimes because they were not poor enough to qualify. Sri Lanka and Jordan were spending two-thirds of their government budgets on servicing their debts.

There were also important areas which, Matthew Martin says, Gleneagles didn't touch at all - notably tax. He argues that it's too easy for wealthy people in developing countries and multinational companies to avoid paying tax to those nations.

He says they need the rich world to agree much more fundamental reform of global tax rules, to provide enough revenue to achieve development goals that have been set for after the MDGs.

Ten years on from Gleneagles, there is a credible case to be made that it has achieved something. But there are persistent calls for more action on debt, on aid and a wider agenda to promote development in the world's poorer nations.