Ayr United v Kilmarnock: Can derby victory for Derek McInnes' side spark Championship title win?

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Derek McInnesImage source, SNS
Image caption,

A victory in Friday's Ayrshire derby would put Kilmarnock top of the Scottish Championship

ByNick McPheat
BBC Scotland

Scottish Championship: Ayr United v Kilmarnock

Venue: Somerset Park, Ayr Date: Friday, 11 March Kick-off: 19:45 GMT

Coverage: Watch live on BBC Scotland & BBC iPlayer and follow live text commentary on BBC Sport website & app

While the ink was drying on Derek McInnes' Kilmarnock contract, onlookers were expecting a resurgence in the Ayrshire side's form and a renewed title charge.

Luring the former Aberdeen manager to take on the role at the Scottish Championship club was a statement of intent when Killie were fourth.

But two months on, the Rugby Park club remain off the pace, albeit just one point and one place behind leaders Arbroath.

With just eight games remaining - and a vital Ayrshire derby on Friday evening - BBC Scotland dissects McInnes' tenure so far.

Have Kilmarnock improved under McInnes?

In short, yes. The sample size is small, but the numbers show the Rugby Park side have improved.

In comparison with predecessor Tommy Wright, the number of points gained, goals scored and goals conceded figures all point in favour of McInnes - but, at a glance, the improvement isn't drastic.

Across his nine league games in charge, McInnes has managed a points-per-game ratio of 1.9 - Wright earned an average of 1.7 over the 17 Championship fixtures he took charge of this season.

An increase of 0.2 might not seem much on the eye, but multiplying that over the course of a 36-game season highlights the difference that incremental change could make. McInnes' end-of-season total would sit at 68, with Wright's at 61.

The issue with that, however, is the new man doesn't have a full season to work with.

As it stands, Kilmarnock's current season average has the Ayrshire club finishing on 64 points - a total that wouldn't be enough to win the second-tier crown in any 36-game season since the format's introduction in 1994-95.

However, with leaders Arbroath just a point above, the tally required to win this season's title is expected to be lower than previous campaigns.

McInnes v Wright statsImage source, BBC/SNS

Ayr's resurgence a warning to rivals

A derby win on Friday would lift Kilmarnock to the top of the table for a day at least.

With Arbroath travelling to Inverness on Saturday, McInnes' men could swing the title momentum in their favour, but to have any chance of putting significant pressure on Dick Campbell's side, Kilmarnock will have to overcome a resurgent Ayr.

Since Lee Bullen's appointment in January, Ayr have moved away from the relegation scrap and thrown their hat into the ring for a play-off push.

An impressive win over their rivals at Rugby Park last month is one of four victories Bullen has picked up in his nine games in charge of a side who are bouncing into the derby after thrashing Raith Rovers 4-0 at Stark's Park last time out.

Kilmarnock do have the upper hand in this season's clashes, though, with a 2-0 home win on the opening day of the season followed by a tight 1-0 victory at Somerset Park in October.

'We know the feelgood factor this can bring'

With the reputation McInnes made for himself at Pittodrie, it is easy to forget what he achieved prior to his spell at Aberdeen.

The 50-year-old made his name during a four-year spell at St Johnstone, where he ended his playing career in 2008.

The former Bristol City manager knows all about winning promotion to the top flight after ending the Perth side's seven-year stint in the second tier in 2009, and also knows the positivity a win on Friday could bring.

"There's that extra bit of excitement," McInnes says. "We're no different to the supporters, we realise the importance of it. We're well aware of the feelgood factor you can get from winning these types of games.

"The other side of that is when we lost a few weeks ago, that was a low point. We've got a bit of making up to do. It's been nagging away at me since then."

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