Six Nations 2022: 'Scotland's injury hit pack must spark to meet formidable French test'

Four years ago, after losing to Scotland at Murrayfield for the second time in row in the Six Nations, France coach Jacques Brunel gave his boys a free pass to explore the delights of the capital, a golden ticket to help them drown their sorrows.

That it was a bad call was no surprise. France got a lot of things wrong in those days. The night ended with some kind of fracas outside a bar on George Street and some kind of incident in a hotel on the edge of the New Town. Their flight back to Paris on Sunday was delayed as police grilled some players about their antics. The following week, the French rugby federation suspended eight of them.

France finished a distant fourth in the Six Nations that year, which was about par for the course back then.

Such is their epic rebuild, not one of the 2018 team will run out at Murrayfield on Saturday - there are eight survivors in the Scottish ranks - but even still, many of those who will be here will be carrying baggage.

France have lost four of the last six championship games against Scotland. They lost a potential Grand Slam in 2020 because Gregor Townsend's team beat them in Edinburgh - 14 of the current French 23 featured that year - and lost a potential title when Townsend's men went to Paris and put one on them on the final day of last season - 12 of that France squad will play on Saturday.

They might not say it out loud but the visitors must be fairly cranky about their hosts this weekend. Over the last six seasons, no side in the championship has beaten France more often, or caused them more frustration, than the pesky Scots.

History is repeating in one regard. In 2020, great claims were made about the French before they fetched up at Murrayfield with a record of three wins from their opening three games. This was supposed to be the rebirth of Les Bleus. No Grand Slam since 2010, this was the team to change all that. Only they didn't. And they didn't do it in 2021 either.

Now it's 2022 and they're unbeaten again and once more the chat has it that this is the next great French team.

And it might well be. Young, powerful, athletic, skilful. They outgunned Ireland a fortnight ago. They played at such pace and with such ferocity that an excellent Irish side struggled desperately to keep up with them. France look the real deal, right enough. Come the World Cup next year, with a great age profile, they could be an awesome force as host nation.

You have to drop other things into the mix, though. Scotland are at home and we can all see again what playing in front of a home crowd can mean in this tournament.

Scotland are also angry with themselves for putting in such a poor performance in Cardiff last time out. The venom that Wales brought to the party against Scotland on the back of their awful defeat to Ireland in week one might now be replicated by the Scots as they try to make up for their own failings in week two.

Rugby is a game of cosmic tactical complexity, but you cannot underestimate the base, animalistic element of a team with their backs to the wall and everything to prove.

Scotland have a huge motivation to silence those who may see them as endless flash-in-the-pan merchants, but they've got problems to solve.

A bubonic plague has descended on the back-row, Jamie Ritchie, Matt Fagerson and now Hamish Watson (out with COVID) are all missing. Ritchie's a defensive leader, a blindside flanker hewn from granite and a majestic breakdown spoiler. Fagerson has become Scotland's main ball carrier up front. Watson is Watson.

Jonny Gray is also out. Gray wouldn't say boo to a goose away from the rugby field but he'd have relished a scrap with these gargantuan French forwards, the more attritional the better. Cam Redpath might well have started at 12, but his rotten luck with injury continues. Not that long ago we were talking cheerily about Scotland's clean bill of health. Never tempt fate.

France, meanwhile, will be without Gabin Villiere, he of the hat-trick against Italy. The poor lambs will have to make do with Bordeaux's Yoram Moefana on the wing instead of him and La Rochelle's Jonathan Danty in the centre. The heart bleeds for them.

As he studied France's game with Ireland, Townsend will have been struck, of course, by the overall pace and the absolute viciousness the French brought to the breakdown. He'll also have been fascinated by the dramatic drop-off that allowed Ireland back into a game that looked far beyond them. The space and opportunities that opened up in those minutes will be grist to Townsend's mill. It's time Scotland backed their attack. They showed virtually nothing in Wales.

The 800-pound gorilla in the room is discipline. Townsend didn't want to dwell on it all that much in public, but in private you can be sure they've analysed it high-up and low-down. The concession of penalties in unhealthily high numbers is not a condition that suddenly befell them in Cardiff. The problem has been around for a little while and it isn't getting any better.

Scotland conceded 13 penalties against Wales - nine of them at the breakdown - and 13 against England - seven at the breakdown. Twenty-six penalties in two games puts them at the top of the offender charts in this Six Nations. In four autumn Tests they shipped 47 penalties - 28 of them on the floor. That's 73 penalties in six Test matches. There's no future in that.

When Scotland lose they don't lose by much, so this lack of accuracy in what they're doing is proving ruinous. They've gone from conceding an average of nine penalties per Six Nations game in 2020 (which is excellent), to 11 in 2021 (which is still decent, albeit they had two red cards) to 13, plus a yellow, so far in 2022 (which is worrying when all your games tend to be knife-edge affairs).

Zander Fagerson, who conceded seven penalties and got a red card in last year's Six Nations and then followed it by conceding another seven penalties in the autumn Tests, is a key man against France.

He was magnificent at the Stade de France a year ago. He carried like a mad thing and scrummaged like a demon. At his best, he's world class, but he can be a penalty machine and he's going up against big Cyril Baille.

In Cardiff, Scotland lost most of the individual head-to-heads and a high number of collisions. That can't sit well with any of them. It's got to hurt. It's easy to say it and monstrously difficult to do it, but the Scottish pack has to come alive. It's been a bit dozy of late. Fagerson needs to ditch the penalties and lead the forward charge.

Nick Haining, a colossus of the victory night in Paris a year ago, is now in at six with Rory Darge moving across to his natural home at seven. Haining offers bulk and narkiness. No bad thing. Darge brings dynamism and extraordinary work-rate.

Magnus Bradbury, at No 8, had better summon his inner Gregory Alldritt for this. His carrying is needed against a French back-row that can light up any arena given the chance.

The crowd will be there for Scotland but Scotland need to be there for the crowd. A thunderous, but clinical beginning, is essential. French dominance early on and everybody may as well pack up and go home.

When the magic happens at Murrayfield it's a coming together, players inspiring fans, fans inspiring players. France will be steeled for it. They've perished in this tumult before. We'll know a little more about their Grand Slam and World Cup potential come late afternoon on Saturday.

We'll know more about where Scotland are at, too. All those injuries and all those French monsters give you the fear. The Scots are up against it. Big-time.